2010 Predictions – How’d I Do?!

gradeLast year, I went public with my first ever “Top Ten Predictions” list.   And now for the first time ever I get to grade how I did.  All in all, I think I did ok.  I rate myself on a scale of 1-10 below.

1 – Autos are the next “killer app” – ok, I probably went overboard with the hyperbole but I wasn’t totally wrong.  I think it’s safe to say that just about every car maker is now seriously looking at what Ford has accomplished with their Sync product line.  The logic for putting these “mobile devices” on line is as compelling as ever.  Score – 7

2 – Microsoft becomes cool again – Again, while I overplayed it I was sort of right – Bing is doing well.  Windows 7 is actually sort of useable and xBox continues to impress.  However, the dark clouds hanging over Redmond persist.  Score – 7

3 – DIY goes mainstream – Almost!  We’re getting there.  My favorite new indicator is Nova’s new show “Making Stuff” with David Pogue.  There was also the awesome, sold out Open Hardware Summit that Bug Labs helped organize.  But neither are good examples of true mainstream.  Score – 5

4 – US carriers realize they need to support 3rd party innovation – I think this one was spot on and I’ll use Bug Labs’ signing of every major US carrier to strategic partnership agreements as proof. – Score – 9

5 – Google’s Android has major growing pains – meh.  I think their gains outweighed any pains.  Sure there is some complaining about fragmentation, etc. but for the most part they hit it out of the park in 2010. – Score – 2

6 – The government embraces Open Source – I feel pretty good about this one.  From success of GOSCON and Tim O’Reilly’s Gov 2.0 and the latest Open Government Initiative from the White House, I think we’re entering an era where government will seriously consider how openness (not just open source software) are beneficial to everyone.  Score – 8

7 – Apple continues to kick ass - that one was a bit of a no-brainer.  Why didn’t I buy more of their stock??  Score – 10

8 – Sony continues to produce nothing of interest – another safe bet.  Score 10

9 – Obama gets more gray hair – have you seen his pictures lately??  Score 9

10 – Peter (me) gets on stage with guitar – ahem, no, I didn’t do that.  However, I did compose a string quintet and had it played in my apartment for my birthday (thanks to my lovely wife!). – Score 4

So all in all I averaged a (self-graded) score of 72.  Clearly needs work.  So – let’s try again for 2011!  Please see my next post.

Photo credit – wonderferret

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